GGG vs Canelo : The Tactical Breakdown

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After the dust has settled on the Mayweather vs Mc Gregor bout it is finally nice to write up on a real fight. The last few weeks has shown me a new level of troll, Mc Gregor MMA fan trolls, some even people that I know who suddenly were experts on boxing overnight. I have put up controversial articles on Manny Pacquaio before knowing I was going to get backlash and did, but never seen something as moronic a person telling you Mc Gregor will knock Mayweather out without giving me any form of tactical breakdown as to why but still think his opinion is more valuable.That is when subjective opinion takes place rather than objective fact. I am a culprit for confirmation bias but never have I witnessed it to the level of the Mc Gregor MMA fan. But in the end the fight went exactly as I predicted, if you read my tactical breakdown because although I love Mc Gregor, a fight must be looked at objectively.  Which is unfortunate as the following fight has not received the acknowledgement it should because of the hype around the May vs McGregor fight.

Fight of the year as seen by many is to take place this Saturday, and stylistically it could be fight of the decade. There are many talking points for this fight  in terms of youth vs experience and skill vs power amongst many things. Watching many of both fighters fights over the last few weeks and taking notes, this article will be the breakdown and prediction of what I see coming to fruition in tomorrows fight. As I can say in advance this is from the most neutral standpoint possible as I have never been a particular fan of either , nor disliked either.


Despite what some people think about Canelo, neither of these fighters have shown to me in any fights that they are in and out type of fighters. What I mean by this is they dont try to stay on the outside of the opponent looking to step into range to land on the opponent and come out of range. For this reason I see them very much being in range for both each others shots. Furthermore, gives me the thought it will be a fantastic fight but also one that doesn’t go 6 rounds.

One thing I am yet to see in Canelo is fighting backwards when he is really on his bike. Not only that, but against someone who is consistently presenting himself in front of you, cutting the ring off and breaking your spirit. In this moment you are also getting hit with the hardest shots you have ever received as well as the other man being the bigger man. Eventually he can break you down. What is fundamental is that Canelo must use his variety of world class body shots to slow GGG down and make him take his foot off the gas and make him hesitate about cutting the ring off knowing what will be returned to him. Not only this but the Mexican must bring himself out of range after the bodyshots or change his angle very quickly to make sure he is not in range for the shots that GGG can throw. Proof of this isn’t evident to me which is why I can see GGG stopping him in the middle rounds.

Golovkin cuts range very effectively. One thing I have picked up on is how he disguises throwing his right hand. As he comes into range sometimes his steps are very small and subtle to the point were his opponent doesn’t notice and lets him come into range. As this happens when he throws the right hand usually his opponent doesn’t have his hands up as is convinced hes out of range. Those shots you dont expect are the concussive punches.  Many fighters have talked about their experience of this in interviews, Martin Murray being the most recent.

People may not agree with me which is fine, but I always thought the most competitive fight for GGG at middleweight was the Jacobs fight, not this fight. The issue is that Jacobs isn’t a household name and would struggle to receive the credit due when fighting GGG as the Canelo fight was always in the woodworks. Jacobs is the most athletic man in the weight division and a huge middleweight. Meaning was the most durable and toughest test for GGG hitting him with the hardest bodyshots hes received in his career. I think after Saturday night when we look back at both fights you will see the Jacobs fight being more competitive. Think for a moment, if Jacobs fought Canelo, how would that turn out? But look that is only opinion.

Canelos youth is a factor and may give him durability that may sway the fight in his favor. But one thing is for sure, GGG has a very good gas tank for his age and fundamentally very well polished from the amateurs. When fatigue sets in or the fight becomes difficult, usually the more fundamentally sound fighter who sticks to foundations of boxing skills in these moments wins.  It is hard to know if Canelo will carry power into middleweight, which I hope he does because it will be a fantastic fight. Although I do worry looking at Canelos frame and the muscle gained that his body will demand more oxygen to the muscles and become gassed in the fight. Could be wrong and he may have much more freshness in the fight and have a better engine.


At the end of it, when it comes to fitness between the two there can be no excuses. This debate, for example the Mc Gregor fight of fans saying if Conor didn’t get gassed he would have won, is the same as if my Granny had balls she would be my Grandad debate. Whats your point? Its a 12 championship rounds fighting, it separates the men from the boys. Theres 8 weeks to prepare. No excuses.


I really hope the fight goes the full 12 and we get a great fight, but for the life of me I cannot see it go over 6. And who will be left standing? I have to go with GGG.